I’d like to say that the iPad will settle in at an average rate of 12 million units per quarter, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. I suspect iPad sales will be down for at least one more quarter, and then may stabilize as people upgrade to the iPad Air 3.
But I have to admit, that’s my optimism talking. I’ve come to love the iPad and I don’t think Apple will abandon it. In fact, the company now seems committed to improving it at a pitch that was lacking during its first few years of existence. Perhaps this couple of years in the doldrums will end up being the thing that turns the iPad around.
Or perhaps I’m kidding myself, and in the end the iPad will be small niche product, an outsized iPhone accessory. As someone who loves his iPad, the idea that I might be part of a tiny enthusiastic minority in a largely uncaring world is heartbreaking. But looking at the numbers, it’s entirely possible that this darkest of narratives is, in fact, the right one.
Until the iPad settles out, it’ll be hard to tell, but I think it’s going to be more of a sibling to the Mac, not its replacement, at least on a macro level.